Dare to Say the Big D

Is there an official definition for "depression"? Or is the proper use of the term strictly limited nowadays to psychological diagnosis?

The world knows what a recession is. A rule exists. A recession isn't a recession until the National Bureau of Economic Research says it is, and they say it is when the economy has contracted for two quarters. That defining moment came yesterday, rather awkwardly, as NBER said the recession began four quarters ago, rather than two.

I thought it was pretty obvious last January that the economy was entering a recession, and I said so in my 2008 forecast.

I didn't work for NBER then, and I still don't, so my word isn't official. But I am going to make a New Year's resolution to drop euphemisms from my vocabulary in 2009, and I'm going to start now by refusing to use the word "recession" when what I mean is "depression."

Recession Declared: DUH!

The National Bureau of Labor Standards just reported that the U.S. entered a recession in December 2007. Readers of my short-lived but remarkably prescient blog on Bloomberg will recall that I said that in my 2008 Forecast, published Jan. 25.

O'Headroom

The more I watch Barack Obama, the more he reminds me of Max Headroom, the 1980s cartoon hero whose persona appeared in the mode of a 1950s television with bad reception. Obama is clearly intelligent and charming, but the brain waves often stutter through a 1930s-style collectivist wave receiver.

Euphemism of the week: Lack of credit/credit crunch. Plenty of credit is in the financial system now. What we have is a lack of confidence.